Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Not right now. Average fixed rates have risen since spring 2026, after the conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy prices and swap rates. The Bank of England held its base rate at 3.75% on 30 July, and most economists now expect rates to stay roughly where they are, or fall only slightly, for the rest of the year.
Below, we cover exactly where rates stand today, mortgage rate predictions for 2026 and 2027, what's driving them, and what it means if you're buying or remortgaging.
Last updated: 5 August 2026 · Written by John Fraser-Tucker, Mojo Mortgages · Reviewed against FCA guidance
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Key facts at a glance
Base rate: held at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, following five cuts since August 2024 (down from a peak of 5.25%).
Average 2-year fixed rate: 5.33% (30 July 2026), up from a 2025 low of 3.93%.
Average 5-year fixed rate: 5.45% (30 July 2026), up from a 2025 low of 4.0%.
Inflation: 2.6% (June 2026), still above the Bank of England's 2% target and expected to rise further this year.
Next base rate decision: 17 September 2026.
Outlook: rates are unlikely to fall much before year end. A further Bank of England rate cut is more plausible in 2027 than in 2026.
What's changed recently?
Rates fell steadily through most of 2025 and into early 2026, but reversed sharply from March 2026 after the Middle East conflict disrupted global energy supplies.
Many sub-4% mortgage deals have been pulled from the market as lenders price in a larger safety margin.
The Bank of England has now held the base rate for five consecutive meetings since December 2025 (30 July 2026 being the latest), pausing the run of cuts seen through 2024 and 2025.
Swap rates, which lenders use to price fixed deals, have been volatile rather than falling steadily, which is why fixed rates haven't followed the base rate down.
Are mortgage rates going up or down right now?
They're higher than they were at the start of 2026, but not rising sharply month on month. After bottoming out around January 2026, average fixed rates jumped from roughly 4% to over 5% within a few months and have held broadly steady since May.
It's expected that mortgage rates will start to gradually fall in-line with any Bank of England base rate drops. That's because, while lenders consider many factors when setting their interest rates, rates for all kinds of mortgages are impacted by the base rate.
The UK base rate is currently 3.75%, having been held from the recent meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee on 30 July. Prior to this, the rate had been cut five times since August 2024, bringing it down from a high of 5.25%.
You'll understandably be wondering how this might impact you and your mortgage. Our mortgage brokers will be happy to compare mortgage rates from across a wide range of lenders, to provide tailored recommendations on the best mortgage deals for you.
The below table shows the average fixed mortgage rate for two-year and five-year fixed-rate mortgage deals for every month over the past year. These are based on our data of deals available from five of the biggest UK lenders (Santander, Nationwide, Natwest, Halifax and HSBC).
Average mortgage rates - 2 & 5 year fixed rate deals
Date | Average rate - 2 year fix | Average rate - 5 year fix |
|---|---|---|
31 January 2025 | 4.8% | 4.5% |
28 February 2025 | 4.6% | 4.4% |
31 March 2025 | 4.5% | 4.4% |
30 April 2025 | 4.4% | 4.3% |
31 May 2025 | 4.3% | 4.3% |
30 June 2025 | 4.3% | 4.3% |
31 July 2025 | 4.2% | 4.2% |
31 August 2025 | 4.2% | 4.2% |
30 September 2025 | 4.3% | 4.2% |
31 October 2025 | 4.2% | 4.2% |
31 November 2025 | 3.93% | 4.0% |
31 December 2025 | 4.0% | 4.1% |
31 January 2026 | 3.85% | 3.98% |
28 February 2026 | 4.08% | 4.19% |
31 March 2026 | 5.61% | 5.63% |
30 April 2026 | 5.52% | 5.41% |
29 May 2026 | 5.45% | 5.49% |
30 June 2026 | 5.24% | 5.34% |
30 July 2026 | 5.33% | 5.45% |
Based on Mojo's monthly data of deals from five of the biggest UK lenders: Santander, Nationwide, NatWest, Halifax and HSBC.
For context, the jump from a 4.2% rate to today's 5.3% adds roughly £58 a month (nearly £700 a year) to repayments on a £200,000, 25-year mortgage. On a five-year fix, moving from 4.0% to 5.4% adds around £104 a month (£1,248 a year) on the same loan.
If you're wondering whether you should get a two-year or five-year fixed-rate mortgage, you may wish to speak to a mortgage advisor. They'll offer recommendations on the types of mortgages that could best suit you and your circumstances while also helping you to secure a competitive rate.
When will mortgage rates go down?
Mortgage rates broadly track the Bank of England base rate, so a fall in rates depends on the Bank cutting again. That's currently uncertain: the Monetary Policy Committee held rates at its 30 July meeting, and while some forecasters still expect one more cut before the end of 2026, others think the next move could be a rise if inflation keeps climbing. Most fixed-rate pricing already reflects this "higher for longer" expectation, so any fall is likely to be gradual rather than sudden.
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Will the Bank of England base rate fall again in 2026?
It's finely balanced. The base rate has been held at 3.75% since December 2025, and the Bank is trying to avoid cutting too soon while inflation (2.6% in June, and expected to rise) is still above target. Some analysts have pencilled in one further rate rise this year if the situation in the Middle East doesn't ease; others still expect a cut. Either way, most economists agree a return to sub-4% mortgage rates is unlikely before 2027.
If you're on a tracker mortgage, a base rate cut would lower your repayments almost immediately. If you're on a fixed rate, it mainly affects what's available when your current deal ends.
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Average UK fixed mortgage rates by LTV
Rates are lower the smaller your loan-to-value (LTV), meaning the more deposit or equity you have.
Date | 60% LTV | 70% LTV | 75% LTV | 80% LTV | 85% LTV | 90% LTV | 95% LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
October 2025 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5% |
November 2025 | 4% | 4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5% |
December 2025 | 3.9% | 4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
January 2026 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% |
February 2026 | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4% | 4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% |
March 2026 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% |
April 2026 | 5.13% | 5.24% | 5.21% | 5.24% | 5.23% | 5.44% | 5.78% |
May 2026 | 4.75% | 4.74% | 4.85% | 4.95% | 5.04% | 5.33% | 5.52% |
June 2026 | 4.63% | 4.61% | 4.74% | 4.81% | 4.90% | 5.13% | 5.46% |
July 2026 | 4.48% | 4.54% | 4.60% | 4.70% | 4.80% | 4.99% | 5.30% |
How have mortgage rates changed over the past year?
July 2025 average mortgage rate | July 2026 average mortgage rate |
|---|---|
4.2% | 5.33% |
Rates fell steadily through most of 2025 as Bank of England cuts fed through, but the trend reversed from spring 2026 as global events pushed swap rates up.
The latest buy-to-let mortgage rates
Buy-to-let deal type and length | Average interest rate across all lenders | Average rate across the big six lenders |
|---|---|---|
2 year fixed-rate mortgage (75% LTV) | 5.69% | 5.14% |
The above are the average mortgage rates for a 2-year fixed-rate (75% LTV) buy-to-let mortgage. These rates may not necessarily be available to you, and are not the only product types available.
Why are mortgage rates so high?
Three things are keeping rates elevated: the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up global energy prices, which feeds into inflation; lenders have responded by pricing fixed deals with a bigger safety margin; and swap rates (which fixed mortgages are priced against) have been volatile rather than falling.
Going further back: the Bank of England raised the base rate from 0.1% to 5.25% between late 2021 and 2023 to bring down inflation, which peaked well above the 2% target. It's since cut the rate five times to 3.75%, but the 2026 spike in energy costs has interrupted that downward path.
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How do mortgage rates work?
Your mortgage rate is set by your lender based on the Bank of England base rate, swap rates, your loan-to-value ratio, your personal financial circumstances, and the type of mortgage you choose.
Fixed-rate mortgages hold the same rate for the length of the deal (typically two or five years). Your payments stay level even if rates rise elsewhere, but you also won't benefit if rates fall during that time.
Variable-rate mortgages, including tracker deals, can change at any time and usually move in line with the base rate.
Should I wait for rates to fall before getting a mortgage?
That depends on your circumstances. If you're due to remortgage soon, staying on your lender's standard variable rate (currently around 7.5%) while you wait is likely to cost more than fixing at today's rate. If you're buying, waiting risks losing the property you want, since it may not still be available if and when rates do fall. A broker can help you weigh up locking in now against the chance of a better deal later.
Should I fix my mortgage for longer?
There's no single right answer. Longer fixes (5 or 10 years) give more certainty but less flexibility if rates fall or your circumstances change. A mortgage broker can talk through how the market might move over your fix period and suggest a term that suits you.
How will changing mortgage rates impact me?
Whether your mortgage rate will change imminently or at the end of a fixed deal will depend on which kind of mortgage you have.
Tracker mortgages: move with the base rate almost immediately, so a cut lowers your payments straight away and a rise increases them.
Fixed-rate mortgages: unaffected until your deal ends. What you're offered next depends on swap rates at the time, which have been falling in recent weeks even though average advertised rates remain high.
How does inflation affect mortgage rates?
The Bank of England raises its base rate when inflation is high, to cool spending and bring price rises back towards its 2% target. That pushes mortgage rates up. When inflation is under control, the Bank can cut the base rate to encourage borrowing and spending, which brings mortgage rates down. Inflation was 2.6% in June 2026, still above target, which is why the Bank is holding rather than cutting.
What are swap rates and how do they affect mortgages?
Swap rates are what lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages, reflecting what financial markets expect interest rates to do in the future. When swap rates rise, fixed mortgage rates usually follow; when they fall, fixed rates tend to follow too, though usually with a delay. Lenders price fixed deals above swap rates to cover their own risk.
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Mortgage rates FAQs
If your fix ends this year, you'll likely see your rate rise compared with what you locked in a few years ago, though not the sharp jump seen in 2023–24. Starting your search around six months before your deal ends is still the safest approach, so you can lock in a rate and switch to a cheaper one later if it appears.
It's a reasonably stable year for buyers: inflation has cooled from its peak, the base rate has come down from 5.25% to 3.75% since 2024, and house prices are forecast to rise modestly (1–4%) rather than surge. Rates are higher than they were earlier in the year, but the overall market is calmer than in 2022–23.
Consider a shorter fix so you can move to a new deal sooner (though shorter fixes often carry slightly higher rates), or an ERC-free tracker mortgage that lets you remortgage without penalty. If you've already secured a new deal ahead of your current one ending, you can usually switch to a cheaper rate before it starts if one becomes available, without penalty. Speak to a broker about which option suits you.
Fixing your rate now locks in certainty for 2 or 5 years regardless of what happens next. If your current deal ends within 6 months, it's worth comparing rates early so you can secure a deal before any further rises, and avoid an early repayment charge by timing your switch to when your current deal ends.
Swap rates refer to the interest rates used in interest rate swap agreements, where financial institutions exchange a fixed rate (such as the interest they receive from fixed-rate mortgage customers) for a variable one. This helps mortgage providers to manage the risk associated with offering fixed-rate, long-term lending.
Many factors influence swap rates, including inflation, economic stability, and market expectations of whether the Bank of England might raise or lower the base rate. Swap rates reflect what markets anticipate interest rates will be in the future.
Lenders take swap rates into account when pricing fixed-rate mortgages. If swap rates rise, the price of fixed-rate mortgages normally goes up. Similarly, if swap rates fall, the price of fixed-rate mortgages normally lowers too.
Lenders usually price fixed-rate mortgages above swap rates to to protect themselves against risk. So, if you're considering a fixed-rate mortgage, keeping an eye on swap rate trends might help you to get a feel for whether rates are most likely to rise or fall in the near future.
Unlikely soon. Most sub-4% deals have already been withdrawn as lenders price in more caution following the Middle East conflict. Average rates are currently in the 4–6% range, and a return to 3% is not expected before 2027 at the earliest, if at all.
It's hard to say with confidence. Most forecasts point to a gradual decline followed by a "lower for longer" plateau, but that depends heavily on how global events, particularly energy prices, play out. We update this page monthly as the picture becomes clearer.
Author - John Fraser-Tucker
Last reviewed on 31 July 2026
Sources: Bank of England – Bank Rate · ONS – Consumer Prices Index · Mortgage rate data compiled by Mojo Mortgages from deals available from Santander, Nationwide, NatWest, Halifax and HSBC.
Author: John Fraser-Tucker. Last reviewed 5 August 2026. Our editorial policy.
Our editorial policy: we write content for our customers that makes mortgages make sense. We create helpful, human, reliable, and unbiased content about mortgages, written by subject matter experts, reviewed by editorial teams and published without receiving benefit from lenders or affiliates. We ensure all of our content complies with up-to-date Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulations.
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How to get the best mortgage deal
Whether you’re buying a home or remortgaging, you may be able to get a better mortgage deal by:
Boosting your deposit. If you can afford to, consider putting down a larger deposit to access a lower loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage - lower LTV deals usually mean better rates, with 40% deposits generally unlocking the best deals
Considering the total cost of a mortgage deal. It’s tempting to just look at the rate when comparing mortgages, but it’s important to look at the other fees involved as well as these can sometimes make a deal more expensive overall than one with a higher rate
When will mortgage rates go down?
It's expected that mortgage rates will start to gradually fall in-line with any Bank of England base rate drops. That's because, while lenders consider many factors when setting their interest rates, rates for all kinds of mortgages are impacted by the base rate.
The below table shows the average fixed mortgage rate for two-year and five-year fixed-rate mortgage deals for every month over the past year. These are based on our data of deals available from five of the biggest UK lenders (Santander, Nationwide, Natwest, Halifax and HSBC).
Date | Average rate - 2 year fix | Average rate - 5 year fix |
|---|---|---|
31 August 2024 | 4.8% | 4.3% |
30 September 2024 | 4.6% | 4.2% |
31 October 2024 | 4.6% | 4.2% |
30 November 2024 | 4.8% | 4.5% |
31 December 2024 | 4.7% | 4.4% |
31 January 2025 | 4.8% | 4.5% |
28 February 2025 | 4.6% | 4.4% |
31 March 2025 | 4.5% | 4.4% |
30 April 2025 | 4.4% | 4.3% |
31 May 2025 | 4.3% | 4.3% |
30 June 2025 | 4.3% | 4.3% |
31 July 2025 | 4.2% | 4.2% |
In 2024, the lowest average rate for a two-year fixed mortgage was 4.6%, while the highest was 5.2%. For a £200,000 mortgage with a 25-year term, the predicted monthly mortgage payment would be £1,123 at a 4.6% rate, or £1,193 at a 5.2% rate. Even a seemingly small rate increase would still increase your monthly repayments by £70, highlighting the importance of timing and thorough research when securing a mortgage.
The five-year fixed mortgage market also experienced changes last year, with average rates varying between 4.2% and 4.7%. Using the same mortgage example, this translates to a monthly payment range of £1,078 at the lower rate and £1,134 at the higher rate – a difference of £56 per month or £672 annually.
If you're wondering whether you should get a two-year or five-year fixed-rate mortgage, you may wish to speak to a mortgage advisor. They'll offer recommendations on the types of mortgages that could best suit you and your circumstances while also helping you to secure a competitive rate.